I'm sure the China blogosphere will be all over this article (China's Great Game in Asia) over at the Economist. Most expats living here, actually love China, but in the back of our mind is the nagging question raised here, namely: What is China's real game going forward? And why is it we're all a little nervous about our own conclusions?
There are many points to consider in this discussion, but one particular viewpoint, the military buildup, caught my attention:
Why are China's neighbours not always susceptible to its charms? Of
course, any rapidly emerging big power is unsettling. Like America,
China can still display a penchant for unilateralism that undermines
all its careful diplomacy ... More traditional fears also unsettle China's neighbours.
This month China's annual budget called for another big increase (of
nearly 18%) in military spending. Most analysts believe the published
budget is understated—in which case, why trumpet such a big number? And
why, without warning, blow up a satellite in space, as a Chinese
missile did in January?
The author is like most of us, which is completely baffled by the actions of Chinese government regarding its military prowess. On one hand, they proudly state their purpose is to defend their borders from meddling outsiders. On the other, there is the occasional rumbling from some obscure military general about attacking a nebulous enemy (America, for one). Could it be that the leaking of contradictory statements by public figures is only there to serve as a smokescreen for the real truth? You know, if someone begins to act unstable, no one wants to mess with them. This potential scenario seems awfully similar.
Going to "the People" doesn't yield any more insight. Most Chinese I've known (selection bias alert!) seem to have no inclination for war with anyone, not even Japan. Instead, they seem happy just being at peace, minding their own business. Yet there is always a smoldering of patriotic fire (called Nationalism in the article) that seems so easily stoked into public outrage. But even that is a small flame that looks to be on the verge of becoming uncontrollable at times. Whether it will or not is completely unknown.
So is it possible to look back at Chinese history for an answer? Well, it would be nice to know more here, but what little I do know isn't any more revealing, and it certainly doesn't contain a lot of success stories. Everyone has heard of the Art of War and Sun Tsu, but does that qualify China as having a notable military history? It seems not. Ancient Chinese war history mainly consisted of infighting between States that eventually became the China of today. Going into the modern age, it's possible to see how China views its strength versus foreign powers (British, French, American, Japanese), as a country that might actually be incapable of defending itself. The results of these wars have become culturally damaging scars in the eyes of many Chinese.
That is not intended as an insult to any Chinese person reading this, but rather a curious (and probably uneducated) observation on my part. Anyone capable of pointing me to a resource capable of better educating me, please do. We should attempt to know, will these scars be the provocation "future" China needs to take an aggressive stance or will the past stand as a warning to defend only?
The answer isn't clear, so it seems like I'm back to the earlier conundrum of understanding where China is now and how fast are they moving toward their real destination? Understanding one doesn't seem to reveal much about the other. It only seems to confuse further. So like an episode of "Lost", we'll just have to wait for the subtle clues to come and go, hoping for an occasional revelation or two to be discovered. But like most of these shows, one mystery solved only opens the door for the next one.
If I just tell you that "GouRou" means dog meat, you can pretty much figure out where the rest of this post is going...